06 | 经济学人:All in the best possible taste

• 小译说：18年第06篇精读笔记

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Investing in the finer things of life

投资精奢品

这篇新闻并不是很难理解，生词和长难句基本没有，官方译文幽默风趣，很多用词都十分地道（蓝字划线部分尤其注意）。多读多输入，才能有好的输出。

第一段

Bonds, shares and Treasury bills are all very well, but in the end they are just pieces of paper. They are not assets you can hang on the wall or display to admiring neighbours. Many rich people like to invest their wealth in more tangible form; property, of course, but also collectibles such as art, fine wine and classic cars.

官译：债券、股票、国债都很好，但说到底都只是些纸片，不是可以挂在墙上或者陈列出来让邻居羡慕的资产。许多富人喜欢把财富投资在更看得见摸得着的东西上：房产自不必说，此外还有艺术品、好酒、老爷车等藏品。

笔记：官方翻译中，“说到底”、“看得见摸得着”、“自不必说”和“老爷车”读起来都是朗朗上口，而且准确表达了原文的意思。有时候我们觉得自己的译文非常生硬，读起来不像中国话，那可能是我们的译文翻译腔太重了。

第二段

Is that wise? Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School (LBS) have run the numbers for their annual analysis of the financial markets in the Credit Suisse global investment-returns yearbook. Some of these assets have done rather better than others (see chart). Fine wine delivered the best returns; surprising to cynics who might assume that, in the long run, the value of wine vanishes as it turns into vinegar. Really old wine often has historical resonance. A bottle of Chateau Lafite Rothschild from 1787 was sold for $156,450 in 1985 because it was thought to belong to Thomas Jefferson.

官译：这是否明智？在《瑞士信贷全球投资回报年鉴》（Credit Suisse global investment-returns yearbook）中，伦敦商学院（LBS）的学者埃尔罗伊·迪姆森（Elroy Dimson）、保罗·马什（Paul Marsh）和迈克·斯丹顿（Mike Staunton）给金融市场做了一番年度分析统计。他们发现上述资产中，有的比其他的表现好不少（见图表）。好酒的回报最高。这会让那些愤世嫉俗之人吃惊，他们原本可能会说，葡萄酒放久了就变成了醋，还能值几个钱？但陈年佳酿往往具有历史价值。1985年，一瓶1787年的“拉菲罗斯柴尔德古堡”葡萄酒（Chateau Lafite Rothschild）以156,450美元的价格售出，因为据信那是美国第三任总统托马斯·杰斐逊的藏酒。

笔记：这段译文中有一些增译，比如①他们发现（补充主语和谓语）；②“但陈年佳酿”中的“但”，把转折关系翻译出来；③把托马斯·杰斐逊翻译成：美国第三任总统托马斯·杰斐逊，让读者更好的理解原文。我们在翻译的过程中也要注意，合适的增译如果让行文更加流畅，那不妨大胆加一些“料”进去！

第三段

Estimating the returns from these assets, after costs, is tricky. Indices covering art or musical instruments are much less comprehensive than those covering shares. There may be an upward bias || inherent in collectible returns, as successful works are more likely to survive.

官译：要估算这些资产的净回报是件难事。追踪艺术品或乐器投资市场的指数远不及股票市场指数那么全面。藏品的回报可能天然会被高估，因为能留下来的多为精品。

第四段

Transaction costs, if valuables are sold at auction, may be 30-40%. But these are the kind of assets that tend to be held for many decades (and passed between generations) so the annual cost burden may compare reasonably with equities, which are traded much more frequently.

官译：贵重藏品如果在拍卖会上出售，交易成本可能占到30%至40%。但这些资产往往数十年不易主，或是在家族内代代相传，所以分摊下来，每年的成本负担可能与交易频率高得多的股票差不多。

笔记：把非限定性定语从句which are traded much more frequently 翻译成前置定语。

第五段

Then there are the costs of insurance. If people want to keep a Stradivarius at home, theft is a big risk; robbery with violins is a serious crime, after all.

官译：还有保险费用。如果在家中收藏一把古董级的斯特拉迪瓦里小提琴（Stradivarius），被偷的风险会很大——毕竟偷盗小提琴已被列为重罪。

笔记：theft is a big risk 换一种表达方式：“被偷的风险很大”，和上一句完美衔接。

第六段

But tax is a potential advantage for collectibles. Financial assets come with income streams that have historically been taxed at marginal rates of 40% or more. Art and stamps generate no income stream and incur tax only when they are sold. The academics calculate that, after tax, collectibles have generated higher returns than equities for British investors since 1900.

官译：但藏品在税赋方面可能有优势。一直以来，金融资产带来的收入流要面对40%或以上的边际税率。艺术品和邮票不产生收入流，只有在出售时才要缴税。据上述三位学者的计算，1990年以来收藏品为英国投资者带来的税后收益高于股票。

笔记：注意 after tax 在译文中的位置。

第七段

On top of that, investors may get an “emotional return” out of owning these assets, which may be as much a hobby as an investment. Anyone who has met an owner of a classic car will know they can display spaniel-like devotion to their vehicles.

官译：此外，投资者可能因拥有这些资产而获得一份“情感回报”，因为这些资产不仅是投资，也是爱好。见识过老爷车收藏家的人都知道，他们对爱车的感情就像西班牙猎犬对主人那样诚挚。

笔记：① on  top of that 除此之外；② out of 出于……的原因；③ as…as…不仅……而且，注意翻译时的语境。

第八段

What about the largest asset that many people hold—their home? The total value of global property was around $228trn at the end of 2016, against $170trn for equities and bonds. The academics are highly sceptical of a recent paper* that claimed housing has enjoyed equity-like real returns with less risk. They think this is an example of Twyman’s law: “If a statistic looks interesting or unusual, it is probably wrong.”

官译：作为许多人拥有的最大资产，房产的情况又如何？截至2016年底，全球房地产总值约为228万亿美元，股票和债券则为170万亿美元。三位学者高度质疑最近一篇论文*称房产的实际回报与股票相当但风险较低的论调。他们认为这是一个泰曼法则（Twyman’s law）的例子：“假如一项统计看起来有趣或不同寻常，那可能就是错误的。”

第九段

In terms of rental income, they say the study made “heroic” estimates of the effect of agency fees and voids (periods when the property is empty). When it comes to the level of house prices over the decades, the LBS academics say that a number of downward adjustments need to be made. The most significant is that the quality of the housing stock has improved. Over the past century homeowners have spent a great deal of money on extensions, central heating, indoor plumbing and so on. When all the adjustments have been made, the real return on housing has probably been less than on equities but more than on government bonds.

官译：在租金收入上，他们认为此研究对中介费用及空置期的影响做出了“过于乐观”的估计。至于近几十年的房价水平，三位学者表示需要做一些向下调整。最明显的一点是存量住房的品质提升了。过去一个世纪，房主在房屋扩建、、室内管道等方面投入了大量资金。计算所有调整后，房产的实际收益可能低于股票，但高于政府债券。

第十段

Perhaps the most surprising finding in the yearbook is that gold and silver have both done worse than cash and bonds over the past 118 years, despite high inflation || during much of that period. In fact, gold performed best in real terms (although only as well as Treasury bills) when there was sharp deflation. Gold did substantially outperform T-bills during high-inflation periods, but this hedge comes at a long-term cost.

官译：这部年鉴中最令人诧异的发现也许是，黄金和白银在过去118年的投资收益表现均不如现金和债券，尽管这期间大部分时间通胀都处于高位。事实上，黄金在出现急剧通缩时实际收益最佳（但也只达到国债的水平）。在高通胀时期，黄金的表现确实明显优于国债，然而这一对冲手段需要付出长期成本。

第十一段

In the long run, equities have been the best-performing asset class, with a global real return of 5.2% since 1900. But that does not mean investors should assume those high returns will continue.

官译：长远来看，股票一直是表现最好的资产类别，自1900年以来，全球股票实际回报率为5.2%。但投资者不能就此以为高回报会持续下去。

第十二段

The prospective return on shares is equal to the real return on riskless assets (such as T-bills) plus a risk premium. That premium is now around 3.5% a year, the LBS trio think. As the real return on T-bills is currently negative, that suggests a real return on equities of around 3%. The LBS academics made a similar forecast about low returns in 2000. The real return on shares since then has been 2.9%. If the professors are right again, more investors will be tempted by Bordeaux and Bugattis.

官译：股票的预期回报等于无风险资产（如国债）的实际回报加上风险溢价。三位学者认为，目前风险溢价约为每年3.5%。由于当前国库券的实际回报率为负，意味着股票的实际回报率约为3%。三位学者在2000年时就作过类似的低回报预测。此后股票的实际回报率一直为2.9%。假如诸位教授再次预测正确，更多投资者将难挡诱惑，转投波尔多红酒和布加迪名车的怀抱。

* The Rate of Return on Everything 1870-2015 by Òscar Jordà, Katharina Knoll, Dmitry Kuvshinov, Moritz Schularick and Alan Taylor

*《1870至2015年间各类资产回报率》，奥斯卡·若尔达、卡塔琳娜·诺尔、德米特里·库夫希诺夫、 莫里茨·舒拉里克、阿兰·泰勒合著

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